Tunisia vs Japan prediction — World Cup 2026
Sunday, June 21, 2026 in Guadalupe. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| Tunisia | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $80 million | $322 million |
| Model rating | 1444 | 1570 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 45.8% | 74.1% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 14.7% | 34.9% |
Why the model leans Japan: a 126-point rating gap and a 4.0× squad-value edge ($322 million vs $80 million).
Tunisia vs Japan head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
Tunisia and Japan have met 5 times: 1 Tunisia win, 0 draws, 4 Japan wins.
Their most recent meeting was 2022-06-14 (0-3).
Japan leads the rivalry 4–0–1 across 5 meetings (3-6 on goals).
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group F predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.