Japan vs Sweden prediction — World Cup 2026
Thursday, June 25, 2026 in Arlington. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| Japan | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $322 million | $495 million |
| Model rating | 1570 | 1514 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 74.1% | 61.9% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 34.9% | 25.3% |
Why the model leans Japan: a 56-point rating gap.
Japan vs Sweden head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
Japan and Sweden have met 4 times: 0 Japan wins, 3 draws, 1 Sweden win.
Their most recent meeting was 2002-05-25 (1-1). That was 24 years ago — a different generation of players, which is why the probabilities above are driven by today's squads and recent form, not this record.
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group F predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.