New Zealand vs Egypt prediction — World Cup 2026
Monday, June 22, 2026 in Vancouver. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| New Zealand | Egypt | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $41 million | $156 million |
| Model rating | 1249 | 1437 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 33.4% | 76.0% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 6.4% | 30.0% |
Why the model leans Egypt: a 188-point rating gap and a 3.8× squad-value edge ($156 million vs $41 million).
New Zealand vs Egypt head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
New Zealand and Egypt have met 3 times: 0 New Zealand wins, 1 draw, 2 Egypt wins.
Their most recent meeting was 2024-03-22 (1-0).
Egypt leads the rivalry 2–1–0 across 3 meetings (1-3 on goals).
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group G predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.