Belgium vs Iran prediction — World Cup 2026
Sunday, June 21, 2026 in Inglewood. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| Belgium | Iran | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $627 million | $38 million |
| Model rating | 1632 | 1353 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 96.2% | 58.2% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 62.9% | 17.2% |
Why the model leans Belgium: a 279-point rating gap and a 17× squad-value edge ($627 million vs $38 million).
Belgium vs Iran head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
Belgium and Iranhave never played each other — this 2026 World Cup group match is their first-ever meeting, so the model's squad-based probabilities above are the whole story.
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group G predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.