USA vs Paraguay prediction — World Cup 2026
Played Saturday, June 13, 2026 in Inglewood. The numbers below are the model's pre-match assessment, kept for the record.
Pre-match model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| USA | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $437 million | $182 million |
| Model rating | 1519 | 1502 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 79.9% | 64.8% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 40.5% | 30.2% |
Why the model leans USA: a 17-point rating gap and a 2.4× squad-value edge ($437 million vs $182 million), with USA playing on home soil in Inglewood.
USA vs Paraguay head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
USA and Paraguay have met 9 times: 5 USA wins, 2 draws, 2 Paraguay wins.
Their most recent meeting was 2025-11-15 (2-1).
USA leads the rivalry 5–2–2 across 9 meetings (12-7 on goals).
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group D predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.