Spain vs Cape Verde prediction — World Cup 2026
Played Monday, June 15, 2026 in Atlanta. The numbers below are the model's pre-match assessment, kept for the record.
Pre-match model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| Spain | Cape Verde | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $1.46 billion | $65 million |
| Model rating | 1762 | 1334 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 98.1% | 35.2% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 70.0% | 6.8% |
Why the model leans Spain: a 428-point rating gap and a 22× squad-value edge ($1.46 billion vs $65 million).
Spain vs Cape Verde head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
Spain and Cape Verdehave never played each other — this 2026 World Cup group match is their first-ever meeting, so the model's squad-based probabilities above are the whole story.
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group H predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.