Senegal vs Iraq prediction — World Cup 2026
Friday, June 26, 2026 in Toronto. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| Senegal | Iraq | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $546 million | $24 million |
| Model rating | 1566 | 1254 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 79.9% | 15.2% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 40.2% | 2.4% |
Why the model leans Senegal: a 312-point rating gap and a 23× squad-value edge ($546 million vs $24 million).
Senegal vs Iraq head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
Senegal and Iraqhave never played each other — this 2026 World Cup group match is their first-ever meeting, so the model's squad-based probabilities above are the whole story.
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group I predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.