England vs Croatia prediction — World Cup 2026
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 in Arlington. Numbers below are as of June 2026.
Model probabilities (100,000 simulations)
From Prever's two-layer model: Elo results rating through March 2026 blended with each squad's June-2026 player market value.
The 2026 squads, by the numbers
Judged by the players actually going: each nation's registered 26-man squad, valued by the transfer market as of June 2026.
| England | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| Squad market value | $1.51 billion | $446 million |
| Model rating | 1698 | 1614 |
| Chance to reach the round of 32 | 94.7% | 87.8% |
| Chance to reach the round of 16 | 65.2% | 49.1% |
Why the model leans England: a 84-point rating gap and a 3.4× squad-value edge ($1.51 billion vs $446 million).
England vs Croatia head-to-head record
Historical context only — the model rates each team's overall form and current squad; past meetings between these two get no special weight.
England and Croatia have met 11 times: 6 England wins, 2 draws, 3 Croatia wins.
Their most recent meeting was 2021-06-13 (1-0).
England leads the rivalry 6–2–3 across 11 meetings (22-13 on goals).
Predict the run, not just the match
On Prever, the AI allocation engine spreads one stake across a team's whole tournament — group stage through champion — at live Polymarket prices.
More Group L predictions
Sources: head-to-head record from Michill World Cup 2026 H2H Open Data (CC BY 4.0); squad market values from Transfermarkt (June 2026). Model probabilities are simulation output, not guarantees. Prediction markets carry risk. Not available in restricted jurisdictions.